Nigerian Stock Market Recovers N649bn in Two-day Rally

Source: THIS DAY LIVE

The Nigerian stock market recorded an unexpected rally last week, which was led to a recovery of N648.8 billion in market capitalisation in two days. The market appreciated 6.59 per cent while its month-on-month growth stood at 4.59 per cent. End of the year portfolio adjustment by institutional investors and fund managers led to a significant price gains by highly capitalised stocks such as Dangote Cement Plc and Nigerian Breweries Plc among others. As a result, the market capitalisation of equities appreciated by N648.8 billion on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Despite the rally, the market closed  2015 with a decline of  17.36 per cent lower. Specifically, the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) All-Share Index (ASI) closed the year at 28,642.25 points, compared with 34,657.15 as at end-December 2014. 

Through the year, the ASI traded within a band of 35,728.12 points and 26,537.36 points, and closed last Thursday at 28,642.25 points with a corresponding market capitalisation of N9.89 trillion. The 2015 performance was in line with expectations, given the current state of the Nigerian economy.

It was another brief trading week as the Federal Government of Nigeria declared Monday, 28th December, 2015 and Friday, 1st January, 2016 as Public Holidays to celebrate Boxing Day and the New Year respectively.

At the close of trades last week, all other Indices finished higher during the week, with the exception of the NSE ASeM Index that closed flat.

The Nigerian equities market had rebounded to close the previous week in the green despite sell pressure in some highly capitalised stocks in the last trading day of the week.

The previous week’s performance was boosted by investors drive to take position in some highly discounted stocks for possible future gains.

Meanwhile, analysts at InvestmentOne Limited enjoined investors to tread cautiously and take position in quality name ahead of earning season as the expected December rally is still in abeyance.

“Although consensus view on equities in the immediate is pessimistic, we advise gradual building of positions in quality names for investors with a medium to longer term horizon. We continue to emphasize cautious trades, as the economic situation continues to weigh on market performance, resulting in our negative outlook till year end. In our view, investors with medium to longer-term investment horizons should continue to gradually build positions in quality names,” they said.

Daily Performance Analysis

The market opened the week in the red last Monday as sell pressure on large cap stocks dragged the index to the negative territory. In all, the composite index declined by 0.40 per cent or 108.00 points to settle at 26,763.24 points with a corresponding market capitalization of N9.20 trillion. Sell pressure on the likes of Lafarge Africa Plc, Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, and Unilever Nigeria Plc largely accounted for the session's outcome, offsetting gains in Forte Oil Plc ,Zenith Bank Plc, and ETI Plc.  Investors staked N3.56billion on 1.3 billion units of share exchanged in 2,455 deals, representing a 769 per cent rise in volume traded and a 129 per cent uptick in market turnover. Typically, Banking equities led by UBA Plc, Guaranty Trust Bank Plc and FBN Holdings Plc, accounted for the bulk of trades in the session (75 per cent of volume traded). The Oil and gas (5.18 per cent) sector recorded the only gain; while the Industrial (2.03 per cent), Consumer goods (1.28 per cent), and banking (0.95 per cent) trackers closed red Cement Company of Northern Nigeria Plc (10.11 per cent) topped the gainers chart while Glaxosmithkline Consumer Plc (5.00 per cent) topped the losers.

After several sessions of negative returns, the returned northwards on Tuesday on the back of strong performances from some sector heavyweights. Leading the charge were the likes of Dangote Cement Plc, Nigerian Breweries Plc and Nestle Nigeria Plc, which added a combined 933 points to the benchmark index. Also notable on the gainers table were FBN Holdings Plc,   Stanbic IBTC, and UBN Plc. Surprisingly major banking names: Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, and Zenith Bank Plc were exempt from the positive sentiments in the market. On the whole, the ASI gained 3.79 per cent to be at   27,777.83 points with a corresponding market capitalisation of N9.55 trillion. Despite the rally seen, market turnover declined by 45.3 per cent from its previous levels to N1.95 billion, while volume traded (1.41 billion) rose by about 6 per cent. The banking tracker (0.09), with Guaranty Trust Bank Plc and Zenith Bank Plc largely to blame, recorded the only negative performance amongst the major sectors. While the Consumer goods and Industrial sectors gained over four per cent each, the Oil and Gas sector posted a 0.69 per cent rise. Dangote Cement Plc (8.59 per cent) topped the gainers chart while E-Tranzact (5.00 per cent) topped the losers. Market sentiment as gauged by the market breadth index closed strongly positive as 33 advancers were recorded against nine laggards.

The equities market rounded off the year on a high note, with the ASI recording an over three per cent gain. Similar to the previous session’s performance, bullish sentiments towards Nigerian Breweries Plc, Dangote Cement Plc, and Nestle Nigeria Plc, largely accounted for the day’s outcome. While volume traded declined by 82.1 per cent to close at 252 million units,  market turnover improved markedly by 98.0 per cent to settle at N3.85 billion.

Market Turnover

Meanwhile, trades on the floor of the bourse recorded a turnover of 2.965 billion shares worth N9.364 billion in 7,174 deals in contrast to a total of 743.117 million shares valued at N6.591 billion that exchanged hands the previous week in 8,325 deals.

The Financial Services Industry  led the activity chart with 2.760 billion shares valued at N5.174 billion traded in 4,103 deals; thus contributing 93.06 per cent and 55.25 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively. The Services Industry followed with 66.805 million shares worth N203.043 million in 140 deals. The third place was occupied by the ICT Industry with a turnover of 42.737 million shares worth N21.730 million in 15 deals.

Trading in the top three equities namely – African Alliance Insurance Company Plc, Sterling Bank Plc and FBN Holdings Plc (measured by volume) accounted for 1.998 billion shares worth N2.585 billion in 882 deals, contributing 67.36 per cent and 27.60 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

Also traded during the week were a total of 60,171 units of Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) valued at N484,396.36 executed in 20 deals, compared with a total of 721 units valued at N250,859.50 transacted the previous week in 19 deals.

A total of 75,750 units of Federal Government Bonds valued at N128.722 million were traded last week in one deal. However, there was no transaction recorded on bonds the previous week.

Gainers and Losers

Meanwhile, the price movement chart of the NSE showed that a total of 42 equities appreciated in price during the week, higher than 26 equities of the previous week. Twenty-two equities depreciated in price, lower than 27 equities of the previous week, while 126 equities remained unchanged, lower than 137 equities recorded in the previous week.

The top 10 gainers were: Forte Oil Plc (N43.35), Nigerian Breweries Plc (N20.28), Cement Company of Northern Nigeria Plc (N1.04), Unity Bank Plc (18 kobo), Vono Products Plc (12 kobo) Union Bank of Nigeria Plc (94 kobo), Vitafoam Nigeria Plc (71 kobo), Airline Services and Logistics Plc (29 kobo), Eterna Plc (25 kobo) and Wema Bank Plc (11 kobo).

Conversely,  the top 10 losers included: Unilever Nigeria Plc (N2.25), Conoil Plc (N1.30), PZ Cussons Industries Plc (N1.20), Diamond Bank Plc (13 kobo), E-Tranzact  Plc (16 kobo), Livestock Feeds Plc (7 kobo), Cadbury Nigeria Plc (90 kobo), Transcorp Hotels Plc (30 kobo), Chellarams Nigeria (18 kobo), and Tiger Brands Consumer Goods Plc (five kobo).