Source: CNBC
Ireland looked set to kick Prime Minister Enda
Kenny's coalition government out of office in an election on Friday with
no clear alternative in sight, an exit poll indicated, threatening to
plunge the country into a period of political instability.
Ireland's uneven recovery was the focus in the election in which voters punished the government for years of austerity despite warnings that political instability might damage a nascent recovery.
Kenny's Fine Gael will win the election on 26.1 percent, the Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI exit poll said. With partners Labour in line for 7.8 percent of the ballot, they would fall well short of the 41-42 percent they identified as needed for re-election.
Such an outcome would leave an unprecedented and potentially unstable alliance between historic rivals Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, which the exit poll put at 22.9 percent, as potentially the only viable way to break the deadlock.
One Fine Gael junior minister said he would "of course" be open to the prospect minutes after the exit poll was released, the first senior member of either party to say so.
"We have to have a government and every option will have to be looked at. The only option I would have a problem with is Sinn Fein," Michael Ring told the Newstalk radio station, referring to left-wing party which polled at 14.9 percent.
If no government emerges, the outcome would echo recent election experiences in Portugal and Spain, where anger at austerity, perceptions of rising social inequality and mistrust of established political elites led to indecisive outcomes.
In Ireland, analysts believe an economy that grew by around 7 percent last year and where the jobless rate has fallen below 9 percent from over 15 percent in 2012 can handle a degree of uncertainty.
Unstable government could, however, slow a response to a possible "Out" vote in an EU membership referendum in neighbor and major trade partner Britain on June 23.
A second exit poll will be published at 2.00 a.m. ET on Saturday before counting begins two hours later. The first of 157 seats declared in the early afternoon and the final winners potentially not decided until early next week.
Ireland's uneven recovery was the focus in the election in which voters punished the government for years of austerity despite warnings that political instability might damage a nascent recovery.
Kenny's Fine Gael will win the election on 26.1 percent, the Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI exit poll said. With partners Labour in line for 7.8 percent of the ballot, they would fall well short of the 41-42 percent they identified as needed for re-election.
Such an outcome would leave an unprecedented and potentially unstable alliance between historic rivals Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, which the exit poll put at 22.9 percent, as potentially the only viable way to break the deadlock.
One Fine Gael junior minister said he would "of course" be open to the prospect minutes after the exit poll was released, the first senior member of either party to say so.
"We have to have a government and every option will have to be looked at. The only option I would have a problem with is Sinn Fein," Michael Ring told the Newstalk radio station, referring to left-wing party which polled at 14.9 percent.
Ring said that if the exit poll proved accurate, it would
be a very disappointing and difficult result for Fine Gael which won 36
percent of the vote in 2011 and came into the campaign above 30 percent
in most polls.
Framed as a debate over how to distribute the profits of an economic growth surge since the country took a sovereign bailout in 2010, Kenny's campaign to "keep the recovery going" fell flat among many yet to feel any impact after years of austerity.
While Fine Gael and Fianna Fail - heirs to opposing sides in a civil war almost a century ago - have few policy differences, the parties showed no appetite to team up during the campaign with one minister describing the prospect as a "nightmare".
Coalition would also be a major gamble for the minority partner, particularly as it would open up the opposition to Sinn Fein.
"It's either a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail coalition, which I think is highly unlikely or a second election, which I think is probably more likely but I don't think it will happen immediately," said Eoin O'Malley, politics lecturer at Dublin City University.
"It looks like it will be a long time before a government will be formed because the current government can't be returned on those figures," O'Malley said, adding that the "disastrous" result for Fine Gael could put Kenny's leadership under threat.
Framed as a debate over how to distribute the profits of an economic growth surge since the country took a sovereign bailout in 2010, Kenny's campaign to "keep the recovery going" fell flat among many yet to feel any impact after years of austerity.
While Fine Gael and Fianna Fail - heirs to opposing sides in a civil war almost a century ago - have few policy differences, the parties showed no appetite to team up during the campaign with one minister describing the prospect as a "nightmare".
Coalition would also be a major gamble for the minority partner, particularly as it would open up the opposition to Sinn Fein.
"It's either a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail coalition, which I think is highly unlikely or a second election, which I think is probably more likely but I don't think it will happen immediately," said Eoin O'Malley, politics lecturer at Dublin City University.
"It looks like it will be a long time before a government will be formed because the current government can't be returned on those figures," O'Malley said, adding that the "disastrous" result for Fine Gael could put Kenny's leadership under threat.
If no government emerges, the outcome would echo recent election experiences in Portugal and Spain, where anger at austerity, perceptions of rising social inequality and mistrust of established political elites led to indecisive outcomes.
In Ireland, analysts believe an economy that grew by around 7 percent last year and where the jobless rate has fallen below 9 percent from over 15 percent in 2012 can handle a degree of uncertainty.
Unstable government could, however, slow a response to a possible "Out" vote in an EU membership referendum in neighbor and major trade partner Britain on June 23.
A second exit poll will be published at 2.00 a.m. ET on Saturday before counting begins two hours later. The first of 157 seats declared in the early afternoon and the final winners potentially not decided until early next week.
No comments:
Post a Comment