You can't blame the people along the East Coast if they're having a Superstorm Sandy flashback when it comes to Hurricane Joaquin.
The
powerful tropical system became a major hurricane overnight. On
Thursday afternoon, it intensified to a Category 4 hurricane with
maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.
The good news: If current projections hold, Joaquin won't be another Sandy.
The
not-so-good news: Hurricane projections are notoriously unpredictable.
And regardless of whether Joaquin makes landfall, it probably will cause
plenty of rain and more flooding along an already soaked East Coast.
Joaquin hitting the Bahamas
Joaquin
on Thursday morning was whipping parts of the Bahamas, an archipelago
nation with more than 350,000 people, and the slow-moving storm is
expected to continue pounding the islands through Friday.
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Around
11 a.m. ET, the storm's eye was passing over the country's uninhabited
Samana Cays with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. Forecasters say the
storm will be near the northwestern Bahamas, including the country's
most populous city, Nassau, by Friday.
By that time, Joaquin could have 140 mph winds capable of causing catastrophic damage, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
Ten to 20 inches of rain could fall over much of the central Bahamas through Friday, according to the hurricane center.
Early Thursday morning, Mikhail Cartwright said
Rain
isn't the only concern: Dangerous storm surges -- with water levels as
high as 5 to 8 feet above normal tides -- are possible on the central
Bahamian coasts.
Swells from Joaquin
also will affect the southeastern U.S. coast by Thursday, potentially
creating life-threatening rip currents, the hurricane center said.
Outer rain bands could hit parts of Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic through Friday, forecasters said.
A satellite image shows Hurricane Joaquin late Thursday morning.
Where it might make landfall in U.S.
Joaquin's
forecast track shows it could be near North Carolina by Monday and
possibly New Jersey a day later, hauntingly close to where Superstorm
Sandy made landfall in 2012.
It was
just three years ago this month that Sandy slammed the northeastern
United States, devastating parts of New York, New Jersey and
Connecticut.
But the projected path of the current storm system already has changed multiple times and could change again.
And should Joaquin make it back to the areas Sandy devastated before, it's not expected to pack the same punch.
This
image shows a National Hurricane Center forecast track for Hurricane
Joaquin, with the storm's eye predicted to be somewhere within the
shaded cone on the days indicated.
How bad it's likely to be
When
Sandy made landfall on October 29, 2012, it had hurricane-force winds.
Joaquin is projected to be a tropical storm once it gets that far north.
The rain? Now that's a different story.
No matter where Joaquin goes, the storm is expected to bring significant rainfall to the East Coast, where some states already were dealing with flooding from separate systems this week.
"One
way or the other, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and on up
will get between 5 and 10 inches of rain -- even without a direct
landfall," CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said. "If we get a landfall, we
get 15 inches of rain and winds of 80 mph.
"But
without even a direct landfall, there will be significant flooding
through the Carolinas, through Virginia, and all the way up the East
Coast."
Parts of the eastern U.S. from
Florida to New Jersey were under flood watches and warnings Thursday
morning, with more than 10 inches of rain already having fallen in some
areas this week.
Flooding made some
streets impassable in Portland, Maine, on Wednesday. Several cars were
stalled on one street there after their drivers tried to make it through
standing water, CNN affiliate WMTW reported.
Floodwater rose to the top of vehicles' tires at a Whole Foods store in Portland, stranding drivers, WMTW reported.
How communities are getting ready
Coastal communities prepared for Joaquin's expected weekend visit.
"The
ground gets saturated, trees come down, there can be a lot of different
issues," Paula Miller with the Virginia Department of Transportation
told CNN affiliate WAVY.
"If the ground is so saturated that trees start coming down in the
roadways, obviously that's going to be one of the things that we're
going to be prepared to respond to."
Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie declared states of emergencies.
On Wednesday morning, winds topped 20 mph along the Virginia Beach coast, with intermittent rain.
Along
Virginia Beach's Atlantic Avenue, a main thoroughfare about two blocks
from the ocean, business owners appeared to be taking a wait-and-see
approach. There were no boarded-up windows. Stores remained open, but
there were only a few customers. It wasn't clear if that was because of
the weather or because it's October in a beach town.
Asked
what she was doing to prepare for Joaquin, Sharlotte Castillo of the
beach shop Sunsations, about a block from the water, told CNN, "Pray,
but we always pray, so nothing new. ... We're usually fine here -- maybe
a little rain, but we're staying open."
In eastern Pennsylvania, folks were taking the threat just as seriously. The Poconos took a beating during Sandy.
"What
we're expecting here is to be on alert for flash floods as well as
power outages, and so we're trying to get the word out to the community
to think ahead, to have a plan," Michele Baehr with the Red Cross told affiliate WNEP.
Dwyane Francis of Bushkill stocked up on canned goods.
"Preparation is the key. You have to be prepared for everything," he said.
Yet, some found humor in the hurricane called Joaquin.
Doug Mataconis tweeted a tracking map featuring the head of actor Joaquin Phoenix during different phases of his career.
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